Dear CMY,
Following is my humble viewpoint about DHA Multan, I have different opinion than you for short term. I hope you will review and reply to my expectations regarding DHA Multan.
DH multan will be a huge success in long term as u recommend also. However u have recommended not to buy DHA multan file above 40lac. Here I differ with u n reasons are:
Allocation numbers issued by DHA around one month ago were like 3800 to 3900. Let us suppose that this number total increases uoto 4500 till general public launch. This means total area will be around 2250 acres. Let it be assumed 2500 acres which is 20000 kanals. As a rule of thumb 50% land will be consumed in development for roads, parks, schools ettc. So remaining is 10000 kanals. Out of 10000 kanals, 5000 kanals will be alloted against files already in market. Remaining 5000 kanal will be distributed among army quota, 1 A and 10 marla general public. Which means quantity of plots offered for public will be very less and onky lucky ones will get the plot in general public balloting.
Now comes the pricing issue. DHA multan will be offered to general public at price around 60 lacs, my pereception is it will be 63 lac and then 17 lac develpment charges. So total price of 1k will be 80 lacs in 3 years installment. My guess is price of DHA Multan file will further increase and will settle around 48-50 lac. It can momentarily go above 50 but realistic price is 48 -50. After public launch which is expected after eid we may see a short term dip in file price as public interest will be applying for ibstallment plots. However after balloting fir successfull applicants we will see tezi in market again. As very less people will be successfull in ballot we will see own money on installment plots and file will follow the trend. I see a price of 57 - 60 lacs in oct- niv this year. We will see further ruse again when balloting for plit numbers will be done. After that it will steadily move upward as per development work progress and market direction.
This is my very lay man analysis as im not a property guru, but it would be nice if you can highlight shortcomings in my analysis.
Regards,
Abdullah
Hassan replied on Saturday, May 28, 2016 05:50 PM
@Abdullah. Good analysis. However, a prime variable in the above analysis is 50% of the area being allocated to roads, parks, schools etc. Is there a sound basis for this presumption? |
CMY replied on Saturday, May 28, 2016 06:12 PM
You are right member ship paid files are in 3900 numbers. But affidavit numbering running into 8000 numbers. Meaning people still waiting to get membership paid or affidavits sitting ready with DHA Multan all cleared for land take over etc but will be transferred only after land owner and investors wish to sell at good rate and or peopleaalready transferred pay DHA for membership fee vouchers.
I don't know how many affidavit remaining to issued to be transfered and how many transfered but still waiting for people to deposit membership fees. Keep in mind after transfer it is holders choice when to pay membership fees. Actual land files close 9000 but to date inly 3900 plus paid membership fee. Rest either to be paid after or still not asked to be issued from DHA Multan by owner who gave land to DHA. Some time people keep affidavit for years. |
CMY replied on Saturday, May 28, 2016 06:13 PM
Please adjust calculation. |
KB20 replied on Saturday, May 28, 2016 06:13 PM
Very well explained 100% agreed with Abdullah. |
AliSheikh replied on Saturday, May 28, 2016 06:25 PM
As per my understanding and previous history as soon as intimation file is issued immediately allocation number is issued regardless of the membership fee.
Membership is necessary but it cannot change series of allocation number. It is also illogical if you purchase file in Jan. 15 and pay membership fee in Jan 16 so allocation number would be in 2016 series. |
AHMAD HASSAN® replied on Saturday, May 28, 2016 07:02 PM
Allocation numbers are above 4500++ now. Abdullah's calculations are correct. |
Adie replied on Saturday, May 28, 2016 07:03 PM
50% only for main boulevards/roads/hospitals/mosques/parks/golf-country-club/schools/public buildings, specially when you look at their proposed master plan ? |
Abdullah replied on Saturday, May 28, 2016 07:16 PM
Thanks for the feedback. CMY sb if total affidavit files are 9000 and if we suppose all of them are included in phase 1 then total installment plots will be 9000 kanals that is also not a big number considering army quota also.
@Hassa., this 50% is a normal percentage used for estimating plits quantity. Even if u compare with prism, total area is around 65000 kanals and plots area ratio I think is even kessa than 50%. CMY can tell u exact figure for this. |
CMY replied on Saturday, May 28, 2016 11:00 PM
Largest ever phase of DHA Lahore will be DHA Lahore phase 9 extension with expected area of 47000 kanal.
I am sorry I tried to explain DHA had 32000 kanal in its hands to draw map till March 2016. At that time DHA had land to issue 8000 one kanal land files.
People already given this 32000 kanal land to DHA & got affidavit issued had transfers done intimations issued and membership paid and made allocations and files fully ready for ballot are close to 4000 today.( 16000 kanal agri land issued allocations out of 32000 kanal agri land minimum as 1 file against 4 kanal land)
About 4000 to 5000 more files could be made into intimation /allocations to be included in ballot in near future before ballot. Not all these files are going to hit market as majority land owners will be holding on to paying membership fee after intimation issued or holding one to getting affidavit submitted to get intimation issued and to get them issued only when rate is high enough near their targets like today or during time from now till ballot day.
We are talking about same thing. I am saying DHA Multan price will be stuck for few months close to 45 lacs ( few lacs up and few lacs down but average near 45 and have a great risk of reversal from 45 back to possible under 40 lacs temporally for next few days to weeks due to profit talking in this steep rise and buyers holding buying of land files afer seeing high price and near launching buyers getting more attracted to installment booking at very low booking amounts instead of paying cash of 45 lacs in one go.
After launch if we all found out less than 1500 installments plots issued YES installments plots can go into big profit like Peshawar and keep rising till actail plots ballot day of land files and when installments plots will rise land files will rise too even before actual land file ballot and may be a lot more than 45 lacs. Land files in this case could be even 55 before ballot. But if DHA Multan booked 1000s of files of 10 marla and kanal and no profit/own seen on installments plots I dont see DHA Multan could go above 45 lacs till land files ballot announced and will have hard time to stay even close to 45 lacs till ballot.
You have no idea how market behaves. When installment option is available no one like to even touch a cash file. Until they are plots in land files ballot they will be not sought after like you see them today.
Assuming DHA issued 8000 land files pre ballot to land owners as they got land for them already . Same number of 8000 plots will be given in ballot to army . That will 16000 one kanal plots plus installments plots one kanal and 10 marla installments plots and about 1000 houses to be offered too in launch.
8000 Land owners + 8000 army plots + 2500 kanal plots on installments plus 5000 ten marla installments plots add all these and you got more plots than Prism DHA 9 Lahore :)
Even half of this number will be a lot for a new untested market of DHA Multan.
BUT even looking at all these numbers I think DHA Multan is great location strong management superb speed of land purchase and planning etc and strongly believe it could be huge gainer but only after this small hiccup due to steep rise adjustment in next few days or weeks. I have always said DHA Multan will be long term three year hold buy. I still strongly think it will fly high after ballot just like Prism today and will inshaAllah see min 150% gains in 3 years hold of my recommended price of 28.5 six months ago to all my 100s of clients. Bought truck load of files for them :)
My clients have a choice to make in short term I told them I expected 20 to 25% rise from purchase price of 28.5 lacs to 32 lacs by end of 2016. We already have reached wel above that targeted price.
You could still hold it for 3 years more and still enjoy gains of 100% plus from taday price of 43.5 lacs inshaAllah or you can lock your gains now to buy Prism 5 marla at great locations after selling DHA Multan in 40s. I have other option that I wont write and give via phone only as dealer jackup prices before my real clients get any benifits. Call me or send direct WhatsApp message for other options where more than 100% can be made safely and easily. In DHA 9 Prism You still have chance to gain same amount Prism because now with recent rise in DHA Multan price Prism is a lot more safer option with any possible political or economic crises or market correction due to budget taxes etc. In Lahore market easy transfers more buyer sellers dealers and more projects near completion.
Until DHA Multan was at 32 lacs that was a very low risk high gainer. Now with price of 45 lacs DHA Multan is medium risk and still good gainer inshAllah. If price go above 50 lacs for land files it will be high risk high gainer. |
Lodhi replied on Sunday, May 29, 2016 04:48 AM
Bros very nice discussions. Allocation is in 4980 series. DHA authorities are still short of 1500 x kanal plots for army 3000 x allotees .Army has aleady alloted plots to their employees in Peshawar and Bahawalpur.NOw next allotment is in 2018. So plot ballot is not possible before two years untill army allotees get files. Only possible if some shuhadas or special cases are settled in DHA Multan. Sir CMYis realist whereas Mr Abdullah is optimistic. I myself is very optimistic so my opinion is more close to MrAbdullah. Anyhow very good and detailed analysis by both the individuals.
It may touch 5 millions as launching is after Eid. Expected price is 8 millions. Plot price 6.25 millions on installments of 3 x years and rest 1.75 millions development charges after ballot again on instalments of three years. |
Khan replied on Monday, May 30, 2016 05:39 AM
Hi can someone please explain about DHA Gujranwala please. Thanks |
Khalid Majeed replied on Saturday, May 18, 2019 05:44 PM
DHA Multan, Gujranwala, BWP
What is Army File? What difference among army, allocation/affidavit and installment. Which one better to buy? |
