I posted a Message about property bubble in Pakistan soon after Cmy released his property Analysis audio and CLEARLY Said there is no Bubble in the Market,
I gave a detailed analysis How this is a Bubble and may burst any time
I have a Feeling from now onward you will see a major impact on the prices, Prism Nearly Doubled in past 4-5 months which was extra ordinary !
80% of the market is black, Just imagine when they pull out from property market, what happens then, I am sure few big fish can bribe and get away from FBR, But how will the majority Show their means and how they earned their money.
Increase of tax here is very minor compare to the issue of black money,
If there was only the issue of higher taxes, there might be a correction of 4-5 lac average on 50 lac property,
But the change in law will also ask you to provide the way you earned the money< this is a major issue and will have huge HUGE consequences in both short and long term
Because even if your money is Halal, very few Pay taxes
Foreign Investment is not looking good either, Eu is on the Brink of a Major Recession again after brexit
GCc and saudi Companies are letting go of staff !
Political uncertainty, Qadri is back and this time PPP is with Imran Khan, And for those how really think Nawaz Sharif underwent a heart bypass, ALLAH help you
I have a Prediction, Property Market will at least Reduce by 30-50% in next year or so !
I also Mentioned in my previous message how I feel bad for people who bought the property when prices were inflated,
I have a Feeling DHA and Other Developers knew this was coming and with the help of few Property dealer they inflated the market,by holding or buying the property from market !
I am not a supporter of PMLN, but if they implement this properly, it is an excellent step !
A bubble is when you have unnatural growth compare to other economic and social factors(See my last post),
this was bound to happen, and I never predicted this severe
From now on relax for a few days see what the outcome is.
Do NOT go into the FRENZY of selling the property as this will make the situation worse and will hugely effect the people who just brought properties in the last few day/months
And Please Please Please stop relying on Property Dealers they are Half involved in the price hike rest half is Black Money,
I Know I am going to get a lot of criticism over this, I will try to answer as many as possible.
Arif MŪ replied on Thursday, June 30, 2016 03:34 PM
I do not know if there will be a slump or not. But I agree to many of your points. Especially following two.
- Proving white money will be a biggest challenge and a main hurdle for new buyers (demand)
- Those who bought inflated properties in past couple of months can face the worst losses
However, if FBR goes easy and govt takes back some of these laws then things can get better. |
Real Estate is best replied on Thursday, June 30, 2016 03:47 PM
not every body buys property through black money. majority of overseas invest in property and their remmitance is white.
do not create unwanted panic |
Habib replied on Thursday, June 30, 2016 04:31 PM
Ali I Don't agree to most of your points, In real estate most of holders are overseas and they don't have problem with white money, The Local big fishes are not holders but doing mostly file business, Or Dealers Type Investors who do Biana Business.
File Business will be affected and people become Prepared for that.
Real estate may have soft landing not because of This Tax or White Money issue but unrealistic gains in certain sectors in last one year.
My Anticipation is prism will have 25% Correction in one year. Houses and on ground Plots may not be affected.
DHA Multan and DHA Gujranwala and Bahawalpur will also have Tough Time |
Real Estate is best replied on Thursday, June 30, 2016 04:40 PM
Habib sab. as possession plots now also charged with property tax so people will shift to non possession plots rather. i do not see any correction in prism |
MS/ USA replied on Thursday, June 30, 2016 04:59 PM
Dear Ail-Pak,
I totally agreed with your analysis. Sorry Habib sahib most plots are owned by oversees Pakistanis. There are huge chunk of plots are owned by locals which most of them with black money.
I was listening to Najam Sethi (Apas Ke Baat) at GEO. He thinks that FBR eventually will go after the black money as well. He too thinks that prices will fall and I agreed. I think the Bubble is about burst. This was long ride and it is time to be over. People should start thinking about going back to the regular business.
Regards |
