Dear Folks , I have seen a lot of posts on property trends after Budget 2019 .Here is my take on it ::
- Nothing will happen. Prices in developed and semi developed areas will keep on increasing. Investor zones like Gwadar and Bahria will suffer high time.Reason
1. Inflation in Pakistan is at 11 to 15 % per annum
2. Take an example :: A government officer in mid career (say Grade 18) is earning around 150000 perks included and in private sector is earning around 350000 to 400000 ( I am saying for mid career Manager in a multinational) .Even with these sort of incomes considering high utility bills , taxes, fees for good schools , expensive health care ..etc., It is virtually impossible for a person if starting from scratch to purchase a house in DHA or Wapda Town or EME ...The brunt or impact of this mis match between income and inflation will come on property gain regardless of 10 year or 3 year gain tax or any other sanction.Property value has to increase. In 2013 an average or say good 5 marla house in Lahore was 1 crore ,in 2016 it reached 1.25 crore and in 2019 it has reached 1.5 crores ..Despite all odds and uncertainties DHA Town increased from 55 to 73 even more , DHA Peshawar from 57 to 120 for a very good plot in last 18 months .Some areas might be stagnant but they will gain eventually. If Prism gets possession the price of a good plot can reach 2.5 crores easily
Lastly there are 6000 + dealers in Lahore alone ,Similarly Karachi and Islamabad and rest of Pakistan. The real estate guys will ensure that property prices remain stable or increase not for us but for their Rozee Rooti. Finally Punjab alone population is 11 crore + .This population itself is a mass market and would not be affected by taxes .
That is my take and better invest in places advised earlier including DHA Multan, Prism, Peshawar DHA ...Remember our high population is our worst enemy and best opportunity
Investor replied on Thursday, June 13, 2019 06:19 PM
Rana sb. Plz Plz face reality in each and every sense I am not a mid range manger. This catagory you explained is even much better opportunities of survival potential than any else these days due to their fixed salaried income but those invested for last 3 years in your explained desired Multan project are stucked & secondly sorry to heard news that Dha Multan is fixing it's file price which is a very unrealistic approach in current senerio of economic conditions.
The small investor who invested in this project for the sake of short term profit taking to meet and to get some early profit on their solid investment and to meet their living expenses by investing are stucked.
But not anymore now property is game of time those who invested for long term will defenetly get consistant gains with the passage of time.
The reason being it's just a file its not a underdeveloped or developed plot.
When you say Dha prism 9 yes to some extant your statement fits only because this land is developing and in near future their is some possession situation for a final destination of end users & builders, developers.
Same like wise No doubt Multan has its own existance & potential only when locals are intrested like wise in wapda town. But situation is different because the overseas investors like you & me is the one who make this land into paradise. It will take some time to be adoped by locals. Like wise Prism 9 when it's all installments of development charges are paid than enter to get maximum profits in minimum time. Today prism 9 is best for investment (those who understand it's potential & location) as well as for end users because it is a liability free zone with no fear of bad location located in the heart of DHA Lahore connecting two different sides of Lahore. |
Consumer replied on Thursday, June 13, 2019 06:20 PM
Prices of developed areas will show gradual decrease or you can say correction for 2 years and then there will be rise. But one thing is confirmed, the number of transactions will decrease and property dealers will look for other professions.
Last budget was also bad for property market, and transactions decreased although did not decrease and now magnitude a lot more. At least ab satta bazi Nahin chale gi. Let's see what happens to DHA Multan files. Will it touch 60 or revert to 44 |
User_6006 replied on Thursday, June 13, 2019 08:09 PM
The culture of horizontal societies will end in bigger cities and verticle will boom IA you will se kanal here in posh society will become 10 crore plus so that no one from no where sell its cheap agric land of khach kho and settle here for better education and health and increase its population with out any roots from here.and no one truly want to leave their homelands.govt should act as mother before introducing european taxes where salaries are high so does taxes and people can see where their taxes are utilizing. Khan sb we voted you to improve court and police and ebd corruption but it seems you are on verge of making poor govt with poorest people.
Rana sb you are not well aware of MN in Pakistan.salaries are quite lower i know on top level peopel earning even 2 million but 90% of are starter or mid level are earning from 25k to 2 lac max.we need to see majority not salt in meal minority even non MN pvt sector people doing jobs on 30k frim years .so these people buy a plot with great difficulty for their future expense as jobs have no savings and these people buy plot for their children marriages,education health and to maintain their life style b even people earning 1 million raise their life style and need to invest in plot to maintain it.but khan sb it seems want to make middle class poorest and govt poor because if uber increase fares it will get more fare per person but no of customer will drop and waiting time will increase same will happen with real estae.with lot of people directly and in directly related with real estae govt should care them and spread enterprenurship in middle class so that they lift up poor class instead of feeding them free. |
User_6006 replied on Thursday, June 13, 2019 08:15 PM
If i buy plot higher and sell lower will govt compensate me .no it wont thn y part of gains to that extent.
Similarly Govt should act very responsibily they should ask charity like dam fund to pay loans.instead of committing this mistakes as property has ut longest cycle of slump or stangent govt should not act carelessly.
And first make education free and health facilites better to middle class who work hard and runs the country. |
User_6006 replied on Thursday, June 13, 2019 08:22 PM
I wish govt make university in every district and hospital in every tehsil so that people of their invest in their lands and make comnercials on bigger roads provided by govt and population remains even steven distributed instead of over populating certain cities. |
User_6006 replied on Thursday, June 13, 2019 08:29 PM
Make sraikistan province and put a ban in Punjab that only Punjabi can buy land no other or chines.this will serve well. |
Investor replied on Thursday, June 13, 2019 10:42 PM
Govt discourage real estate so that investors swift their money into some productive sector. But govt didn't provide the alternative option. So now investments will be Block. No overseas pakistani has the time to invest in some productive sector. So if foreign remittance will not come it means dollar will go up. Inshort this is a very stupid policy. Govt have to collect 5.5 trillion tax which is the target of this year but by this policy they will unable to collect a single penny. Instead of recovering the looted money from zardari and nawaz they impose more taxes on nation. Govt wants to slaughter a hen for the search of golden eggs! Buyers will not buy because after 45 days they have to become filer and seller will not sell. And if transactions will not happen govt will receive rotten eggs instead of golden eggs! |
C H A replied on Friday, June 14, 2019 03:30 AM
Simply invest in best location commercial and hot favorite end user plots ....
Recommend buying in especially the phase that is underpriced and non possession..but you know on ground actual plot location .. there will be room for growth in value and will still be easier to sell due to broad base of real end users who will want to build ....
Avoid smaller cities where real end consumers are far less ..... most of the buying in those smaller cities
( bhawalpur/ gujranwala/ Multan )were by overseas/ or out of town investors ........these cities are not going to give good gains due to lack of real end consumer volume compared to Lahore
You may disagree but My humble suggestion would be Dha Lahore only for now and particularly exceptional location plots like Phase 9 plots as possible possession in next 1.5 to 2 years expected
If buy now at good price .... you can still sell at good profit even if you account for capital gain tax .....
I won’t mind paying capital gain tax if,
1) I can sell my plot easily .....
2) I can still have relatively good profit margin for my investment....
Thx |
Ali replied on Friday, June 14, 2019 03:57 AM
@CHA
Question is how many end users can AFFORD these plots?
Reality is that majority of our population can only DREAM of a house in DHA. Do you think that the existing societies in Lahore are not sufficient for the end users who can AFFORD? It's a huge supply. And the demand is going to fall after this budget gets approved and once investors are out of the game. It's simple demand and supply equation. We should not mix things.
Only hope is that the budget does'nt get through the NA. :) Best of luck |
thinker replied on Friday, June 14, 2019 04:43 AM
i think property dealers should find something else to do soon. Secondly even overseas Pakistanis specially is USA or UK or Europe would invest there, rather than in Pakistan and lose 15% each year due to rupee devaluation alone. A non filer buying a plot is like painting a target on yourself for the FBR. Genuine filers like salaried class professionals cannot afford anything good in property with these prices. So who is going to buy ? And this population increase logic is total non sense. 99% increase in population is happening in segments who cannot even afford two meals a day. Its not like the middle class is growing and poor are coming up and joining middle class. Its the other way round. |
Rana Australia replied on Friday, June 14, 2019 04:54 AM
I think it is a healthy discussion.I will write tonight when I am free and discuss opportunities. Thanks to all for commenting |
USA DOC replied on Friday, June 14, 2019 07:05 AM
I can tell you from overseas investor standpoint
1) dollar PKR exchange depreciation
2) capital gain tax ( high rate for 10 years )
3) decline in property transactions and price
All of these are against now for overseas remittances by investor
This will hurt country |
Asif replied on Friday, June 14, 2019 09:54 AM
Well, thinker & USA DOC have explained almost all important points in few lines. Investors in smaller cities and non-developed areas in Lahore are going to face worst liquidity issues in coming future, one may not be able to sell his file/plot even in loss. |
Ahmed replied on Friday, June 14, 2019 10:33 AM
If population is being considered as an "opportunity", then one has to learn from Indian reality market. It's a decade since real estate market is struggling with almost no growth in the sector. The had similar taxation issues and on top of that the dumping of old currency notes policy contributed to near death of real estate market. (We are also hearing news of PKR limiting to 1000 notes only) |
Simple replied on Friday, June 14, 2019 11:08 AM
People living in Pakistan have better idea of ground realities regarding property market & sufferings of common man. It's not a matter of ego rather we should have clear understanding about market behavior no matter it suites us or not.
I think we must accept this reality open heartedly that attraction in proerty market is over for at least next 5 years (exceptions are always there but we are talking about market overall).
It's a bitter truth that property prices has gone too high in most of the cities even out of the reach of majority population which is struggling to meet both ends, they dont even think to buy plots or house. Middle class itself is struggling due to sudden rise in inflation. We do not see any demand in near future so downfall in plots prices is obvious. |
Thinker replied on Friday, June 14, 2019 11:53 AM
I expect around 20% drop in prices by June 2020 when dollar will be at 170-180. Prices have to come to a level where a professional or businessman making 3-5 laks per month can buy a house. Right now its not possible. Massive economic down turn is expected in the next two years with declining incomes in all sectors including banks, auto, real estate, cement, education, retail, imports etc. |
AHMAD HASSAN replied on Friday, June 14, 2019 01:04 PM
Unfortunately all gain of last 5 years has been stolen by USD. |
USA Doc replied on Friday, June 14, 2019 01:27 PM
Yes dollar has killed all gains for us overseas
So sad 😞 |
Consumer replied on Friday, June 14, 2019 02:11 PM
Dollar at all time high of 157.5 today in open market.
Rok sako tu rok lo ....
Tabdeeli aai re
Tabdeeli aai re |
Tahir USA replied on Friday, June 14, 2019 08:16 PM
Let us be patient; wait and see. Inna Lillah he wa inna elaihe Rajeoon. |
Ali replied on Saturday, June 15, 2019 01:40 AM
طاہر صاحب
ریل اسٹیٹ کی میت پر آپ نے إِنَّا لِلّهِ وَإِنَّـا إِلَيْهِ رَاجِعُوْنَ ہی پڑھ دیا ہے |
anyone replied on Saturday, June 15, 2019 06:45 AM
DHA ka Pithu ... jeolous from Bahria |
