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   MS
Wednesday, June 26, 2019 07:40 AM 
Reply: >
US $ to reach 184 within one year , as agreed by government to IMF 🙁
Khan88 replied on Wednesday, June 26, 2019 07:57 AM 

Unfortunately it will be really bad for the poor people of the country.

The wealthy will hoard assets in gold/usd/foreign currencies.
free_man replied on Thursday, June 27, 2019 04:01 AM 

There is no agreement on rate but agreement is on free float exchange rate. This can go 485 and even beyond if the demand for imports keep going up. But there is economic theory of replacement comes in when meat get expensive people resort to pulses. If exchange will keep going up then people will come to a point where imported goods will be unaffordable and demand for import will decline, so will be demand for dollar. This balance point could be any body's guess. It can be 185, may be 200 or 250.
Ahsan Sattar replied on Thursday, June 27, 2019 04:58 AM 

There is one thing called "Real Effective Exchange Rate" REER. The REER of Pakistan was around 125 in 2017 when Pakistan was asked to bring REER closer to 100 for any negotiations with IMF. Pakistan since then started devaluation.
Currently (at 162) the REER of Pakistani rupee is 103. This is fairly close to 100.
The problem with our currency is as soon the government brings REER close to 100 mark it starts rising again, because of number of factors including the trade deficit.
It will be keep depreciating but at lower rate till end of this year probably. After that global recession to follow.
Best of luck!
(At 100 it is considered that the currency is neither overvalued or undervalued. Above 100 is artificially over valued currency and below 100 is overvalued currency)
Kashif79 replied on Thursday, June 27, 2019 02:38 PM 

IMF money has not arrived as yet. The situation may change when that occurs and when more lenders are willing to lend.
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