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Market Direction After the Budget,

(53420)
Thursday, June 11, 2009 05:56 PM 

Market Direction After the Budget?

Dear friends I know you all are waiting to see what will happen after the budget. When you ask property holders / potential investors and general public 90% people are telling us market will fall further .

I dont like to go with herd. I try to use my mind and people dont like to see my guess and comments at time I write them but latter they realize they become true. This time I am again going against the majority and I will say market will rise after the budget ( Even with new taxes or no new taxes) . I have started to suggest my clients and friends to finish their buying before the budget or they will have to pay more.

My guess is most visitors here are also of same opinion that market MUST fall after the budget announcement or after the new taxes announcement. But if you ask me my answer is market will not fall. If it will not rise it wont fall either. I am seeing some 1 to 2 lacs gains in DHA Lahore files and about 4 lacs in DHA Lahore plots coming weeks.

Ali Khan replied on Friday, June 12, 2009 01:25 AM 

the sentiment is so negative here and they say that when everyone is selling its time to buy...so I agree with you....

Waqar Latif replied on Friday, June 12, 2009 02:41 AM 

CMY, i appreciate your analysis, and respect your thoughts but there are somethings which don't let me to accept it.

1. realestate business tax (shaukat tareen deny all other rumours about other taxes like kse, agriculture etc, but didn't said anything for realestate, also many official source are quoting unofficially these news, so there is a tax)
2. GST is going to be increase by 1% (which means all and every product will get expensive, and also put effect on property tax)
3. Recent most report submitted to the government about the "Actual" rates of the market, an this analysis was performed to put the actual rates to the development authority (thats again for tax purposes). Like PIA 10 m house's price at LDA is just 7 lac , and tax was calculated on this basis. but now if actual price will reach to the LDA how much tax they going to take.
4. National saving's rate is not going to decrease anywhere sooner, and people think this is one of the best place for their savings.
5. The buying power of the people has been dropped tremendously, now many of the middle class has joined poor class, since poverty level has jumped to 25k.
so i don't think rates can go up, in anywhere sooner.

Guest User replied on Friday, June 12, 2009 08:16 AM 

I agree 100% with Mr. Waqar & appreciate his analysis.

Jameel replied on Friday, June 12, 2009 10:01 AM 

As a matter of Fact Prices in realestae has Bottomed for last 2 years. Thre is slight hoovering in some areas like DHA based on rumors but as a whold Maket did not go up and down in last 2 years.
If any futher tax is coming there will not be much difference in price. Only buyer will pay more money in dues Like may be 4% in Place of 2 %.
But two points are worth mentioning. One is it looks possible that Rupee may devalue Further, So if net price remain stable in 2 years even then your investment may devalue in foreign currency.
2nd point is, in this negative sentiments some investrs are desperate to off load their investments. If you have good fishing skills you may get some very good investment at much lower price than Market. Becuase Mrket price is that where active buying and selling is going on, if there is no active buying and selling then there is not valid market price.
Take an example if I have 2 kanal plot in park view and Market Price is 90 Lac but I am not getting any buyer at "market Price" for one year, Now If i need cash now I may have to sell it in 70 or 75 Lac.
But it does not hold true for all the areas where developmnet is complete and people are living and demand is strong.
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