observor replied on Saturday, May 21, 2011 06:41 AM
If we take 2015 figures, this assumes around 13.67% annual depreciation of Pak Rs. against US$. No one can predict the future and especially forex is almost impossible to forecast however, if we take average of the past 30 years, Pak Rs has depreciated at an average rate of around 6% annually. The assumption is that our economy would continue to grow as it is doing now, no better and no worse. I am not aware of the rationale behind bloomberg projections but if these are true, they definitely assume that our economy would perform much worse that it has been performing historically.
my own feeling is that it depends on several factors A) commodity prices B) remittances c) debt flows D) exports etc. Though we dont have forex to pay back IMF funds, we probably would go into another IMF program for paying our existing loans. i dont expects exports to increase however, debt flows and remittances might help in keeping the rupee depreciated at the historical average of 6% rather than that of 13.67% annually. |
