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Pakistan Real Estate Prices - Next Market Correction,

(70211)
Thursday, January 26, 2012 06:32 AM 

Salam Everybody,

I'm sure many of us associated with real estate investments one way or the other have thought about this.

After the boom in property around 6-7 years ago, property prices and trading has been generally stagnant. Though there has been some growth in selected areas in major cities but overall it's been a 'buying' time for quite a while (last five years) now.

When do you think, it will be mature for next market correction i.e. upwards adjustment in prices?

Thanks for your valued opinions.

Regards,

Amir

FX replied on Thursday, January 26, 2012 10:34 AM 

Dear Amir, intelligent thought. In my opinion, upward adjustment is already happening which is lead by DHA and Bahria in Lahore especially their commercial areas. A example of this phenomenon is successful launching of Bahria Sector D and recent launching of Sector E, which was just unthinkable two years ago. Also, if you had observed lines for recent balloting of DHA Phase 1 to 8 and the "own" amount again on these plots, this again represents that in long term investment such as property, its time for upward trend provided there isn't major chaos in this country.

P.paki replied on Thursday, January 26, 2012 04:00 PM 

just i can tell u my own experience. in last feburary a dealer forced me to buy in PHase 6 instead of ph.5 and he sent me sms of 1K prices in different block and max was 58lakh and now max in ph.6 is about 110 for 1K . so rest u can guess. in last feb.2011 5 marla was 28 , 10 marla was 41-50 in ph.5 and now it is 60-75 and 5 marla is 33-42

Amir replied on Thursday, January 26, 2012 06:45 PM 

@ FX and P.paki,

So, it's obvious that trend is upwards, at least in Prime areas.
Probably currency depreciation is also partly contributing towards it. Additionally, the updwards trend has been gradual which looks like an act of genuine market forces certainly a positive sign.

So, assuming neutral impact of political situation, can we say this trend will continue in next 2-3 years. WHat do you think?

Regards, Amir

Inflation replied on Thursday, January 26, 2012 07:52 PM 

Just to add some comments according to my own experience:
We often hear that pakistani currency is going down day by day and in a few years it will be of half value, how much true is that in fact..?

I just bought a plot in DHA at the end of 2009, at that time I received Euro conversion rate @123 Rs. After 2,25 years the rate of Euro as today is still approx. 118.

So, it means that you cant say definitely that investing in Pak Rs. will result always in loss.

Umair NYC replied on Friday, January 27, 2012 01:06 AM 

Interesting topic; its all relative friends. Pak rupee relative to USD depreciated by 35%+ in last 3 yrs or so. So an investor from US gets a hit. But in long run hopefully the rate of return on land is greater than depreciation

Amir replied on Friday, January 27, 2012 03:58 AM 

@ Inflation (interesting nick by the way) and Umair NYC

I think, as most of us can probably agree, that currency value (and risk thereof) is just one of the many factors contributing the changes in prices in the real estate. However, to make things simpler to understand, generally speaking inflation (or Consumer Price Index) is what one needs to keep up with to sustain the capital value. For example, in Pakistan value needs to appreciate around 10% per year to maintain the capital value.

Euro, as you referred, is high risk currency at the moment, having a nose dive and it looks like from forecasts that this trend will continue. So, any currency could be better than euro during the next one year at least.

On the other hand, US$ has seen a reverse trend and again forecasts of 2012 indicate that 2012 will be the year of US$. Actually reverse of what we have seen in 2006 to 2008. This can be argued for days and countless analysis can go into this discussion to conclude. Essentially, we are talking about currencies market here where stakes are high and numerous factors including respective Govt. policies contribute towards to it.

For individuals, what matters is base currency of yours (most of the time the country where you live or you want to invest for future move).

I agree with Umair NYC as that's the real appreciation of real estate (beyond) currency depreciation) what we are all looking to get against our investments.

Thanks for sharing your opinions anyway.

Umair NYC replied on Friday, January 27, 2012 04:49 PM 

Lets hope that Imran Khan gets elected as the next Prime Minister. He will inshallah bring peace, stability, and economic prosperity to Pakistan by ending all wars (Taliban/India etc), and enhancing strategic alliance with China and India to enhance trade, reduce inflation, and create jobs. Its very simple to turn the fortunes around of Pakistan for the better; just need sound economic, and political policies that our parliament fails to conceive or enact.
With the right economic and political policies, the Pak. Rupee will appreciate relative to all currencies and attract more foreign direct investment hopefully.

Asad replied on Saturday, January 28, 2012 04:24 AM 

bear brothers i have read your comments and indeed i am more educated now since i am not a businessman so please forgive if i write any thing that hurts any body, my friend told me that when ever u make a decision 2 thing must be kept in mind ,firstly the depreciation rate ,secondly the devaluation rate ,on top u calculate your profit say 7% so what i mean to say is if the rate of return is around 30% then its viable (18% inflation+5% devaluation +7% profit) please no hard feelings

Asad replied on Saturday, January 28, 2012 04:27 AM 

sorry (dear brothers)

Amir replied on Saturday, January 28, 2012 04:29 AM 

@ Umair NYC

Well written. So true yet so unfortunate that with plethora of resources (agri land, vast human resources to name a few) available to our nation we not only failed to build on any rather even lost all the nominal share of opprtunities we could get without much of a concerted effort. And finally we are due to learn from virtually any country on the globe including country like Bengladesh who are naturally in much disadvantageous position.

Hope we get the confidence back as a nation and see a turnaround in our lives. No doubt, we can just get the 'intent' right to achieve all this. Simple governance, yet so hard to achieve in our scenario. Imran talks sense, and has got some experience from seasoned politicians joining him. He has just to figure the way through vested interests not only of individuals but of institutions as well - an uphill task but nothing comes by coincidence or for free.

Good luck Imran!

Nadeem replied on Saturday, January 28, 2012 05:17 AM 

InshAllah Khair will happen to Pakistan.

Pakistan has a great potential to excel towards progress. There are many many areas such as agriculture, industry(textile, software, coal/minerals, water-irrigation, small dams, etc) where planning. administration, and good governess can help not only to increase the progress but also many jobs. But, need a group of sincere people. I think, it cannot happen until we don't change ourselves.

A common man should start thinking positively instead of only for himself(selfishness). First thing we need to do is, STOP JHOOT BOLNA, jhoot is the root for all problems. Jhoot in any sense and in any place is still a jhoot.

Amir replied on Saturday, January 28, 2012 08:22 AM 

@ Asad

Thanks bro for your comment. I personally believe any contribution is good and that's how we should move forward.

Just one comment, two factors of inflation and devaluation have an overlap so you should only consider one of the two may be the higher amongst the two, but of course your choice!

Umair NYC replied on Saturday, January 28, 2012 12:58 PM 

Thanks Amir; I am aiming to get my MBA in couple of years and move back to Pakistan in 5-10 yrs and hopefully start a consulting firm for the govt (re: policy making etc). I live in New York and am in Finance industry. How about yourself?

Amir replied on Sunday, January 29, 2012 04:18 PM 

Thanks Umair, I have done CA from Pakistan and living in the Middle East from last ten years. Good luck for your studies and future career aspirations.
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