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Cautious investing,

(74727)
Friday, September 21, 2012 08:06 PM 

As most discussion here lately has been about how good pakistan property investment is now, I want to point out some negative things that cannot be ignored. Be very careful.
1. the nation's worsening financial situation has already led to dollar run-up upto rs 95 plus. over the next year, dollar could be upto rs 110 or so.
2. the election situation is still unclear. If PPP, with its allies, comes back in power, the market centiment will go very negative. Pakistan already has lost a lot past 5 years and the chance of next 5 years will surely depress property prices in Pakistan.
3. property tax risk. Several parties, primarily the PTI, has stated that they will levy high property taxes. Chances are high that the large plots - 1 kanal or over are likely to be taxed heavily under their setup, thereby depressing property prices.
4. If nawaz Sharif came to power, DHA's are likely tosuffer especially their new phases. There will mostly major changes in the DHA housing schemes under their next govt.
5. In islamabad, CDA's speed of work is so slow that it could be decades before they even build a single road or sector - the history is front of us while in that time, the rupee can half.
6. If prices grew in the past so and so, does not at all mean that they will do the same. Pakistan turned from a primarily nation into a urban place - such changes are not going to repeat again.
7. Property, as part of a larger portfoleo, may be a reasonable investment. However, a lot is unclear at this time.

javaid replied on Friday, September 21, 2012 09:03 PM 

well said

ZNS replied on Friday, September 21, 2012 09:14 PM 

Good analysis, thanks,

CS replied on Saturday, September 22, 2012 02:58 AM 

Obaid sahab,
You can not apply above mentioned assumptions in Pak Propertry market.
Last three years were pathetic in History of Pakistan. But Still these situations and un-clarity and such things didnt effect on property market. Though last two three years brought everseen boom in Property market.

ua replied on Saturday, September 22, 2012 03:08 AM 

Obaid bhai, there are always positives and negatives associated with any investment decision. If a property 'bull' states his points, he will come up with things like fast growing population and fast urbanization (no signs of slowing down) contributing to shortage of land in good locations, increasing personal income (yes, we are a growing economy), increasing foreign remittances contributing to more people being able to afford property. Chances of better economic growth under different government in future leading to better returns on all kind of investments.

So, as in any decision, there are uncertainties. Things will always remain unclear. At the end, it is your choice.

Khan replied on Saturday, September 22, 2012 04:23 AM 

Not very well said. We have habit we quickly accept negative view points.

MM replied on Saturday, September 22, 2012 04:25 AM 

Disagree:
Market sentiment has to nothing do with any political party.
It is security environment which makes investment friendly country.
Go back to 2008 and early, There were blasts and suicides were routine, on daily basis.
IK will not be able to do anything, My expectation from him is to develop at least one institution like Tax.He is fair and sincere but lacks leadership.
NS is just a Dumb like Gilani, nothing else, yellow taxi,tandoor etc. nothing else is expected from him.He is not a leader at all rather he takes the lead from the people.Unable to stand for interview more than 10 minutes.I can prove that all the mess like corruption,terrorism and sectarianism etc. we have today, NS has contribution.

Aamir replied on Saturday, September 22, 2012 04:56 AM 

Completely disagreed with above comments in total.

Pakistan witnessed worst situation during 4 years yet the real estate properties appreciated when all most all other businesses except food industry regressed.

You must know the power of positive thinking. If you think positive the universe will bring good things to you and vice versa.

I expect the good time for Pakistan is very near and INSHALLHA it will be there to see for all.

Khan replied on Saturday, September 22, 2012 05:08 AM 

INSHA ALLAH

Jameel replied on Saturday, September 22, 2012 06:17 AM 

Ref to Obeid
Sorry but I dont agree to most of it, 3 ys back you could get a possession or near possession plot in DHA 6 in 40 Lac now it is 70 Lac, As matter of fact I almost finalized a deal in 43 in N Block Upper Cut but due to my Commitments could not execute and now same plot be not less than 75 where as in Last 3 ys it has been worst performance of PPP Govt in history same applies to Financial Condition.
During recent turmoil of Syria I was discussing with one of my Syrian friend, He told when nation is in worst disaster and Currency is on free fall people are converting their money to real estate and its price sky rocketed. I was astonished to hear this all.
Reg PTI there is difference of an election slogan and real implementation, I dont think Imran can implement something which will heavily affect foreign remittances, Pros and cons of every thing are taken into account when certain decisions are made.

kk replied on Saturday, September 22, 2012 08:35 AM 

I agree with Jameeel....real estate investment is a better option than to keep cash in dollars or dirhams...

Ali_from_Karachi replied on Saturday, September 22, 2012 12:39 PM 

Population growth rate won't let the prices come down.

Honest Opinion replied on Saturday, September 22, 2012 01:28 PM 

With Ref to Obaid and all other critics,
We just blast our comments and try to prove or justify our point of view.No matter who comes in power or remain in power regardless. Property prices will remain on steep curve due to million reasons one of them is foriegn remittance. CDA need complete overhauling and it will take time to heel. DHA, Bahria lost thier credibility.
Lemme tell one thing Pakistan doesnt need new leadership or new faces, a revolution BY the People of pakistan and FOR the people of pakistan, PAKISTAN ZINDABAD!!!!!

Moment of truth replied on Saturday, September 22, 2012 04:22 PM 

During last govt. we had every thing, but no democracy and we protested violently, in favour of Zardari, Nawaz Sharif and Iftikhar Choodry.
Finally, we won democracy and free judiciary but still people are not happy!
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