Current Bahria Town Karachi Situation And It’s Future
by Azan Shah
As most of you know Bahria Town Karachi rates are decreasing day by day and people are in huge loss, specially small genuine investors. In average 75% of prices gone down in recent months for all Bahria Karachi Projects. Pricing downfall was expected but this worst fall was never expected. However, whatever is done is done now. The question is what should we do, what should be our next step, how to recover our losses. For all these answers we will take a look at backlogs and then we will devise a best strategy for future.
What is the reason of BTK downfall:
As I already mentioned in a few posts that already there was extra selling for old items, especially for 125, 250 yards etc. Bahria thoughts let's sell as much they can then later they can handl with merging or self-buying. So that was expected but that was not leading to the stage of down fall where today Bahria projects stand. The matter becomes more serious when land issues/rumors occurred. Previously we heard that Bahria has 40,000 acre's of land available for all project but after some institutions involvement and and news for indicating illegal land for Bahria, make the situation more panic and people thought their all investment is going to be zero so better sell everything for whatever comes in hand at this time, otherwise nothing will available if legal-stay is taken, which i personally believe was/is not going to happened.
To cater the situation Bahria came up with a letter to concerned head and published in newspaper and other print media that they didn't purchase the lands from Singh gov but genuine people and the land size is 7631 acres. Hence we can understand that Bahria legitimate land is 7631 acres only. So don't forget that the files sold by Bahria may not according to the 7631 acres but several times more than that. BTK has sold around 40,000 acres land.
So let's make some rough calculation here to find out what can be done in this size of land. We heard and can take an estimate from Bahria Town map that there are around 80k 100k 125 sq yards files distributed, so each 125 yards file contains 5 marlas. Now if we look at per acre it contains 160 marlas = 1 acre . So our formula would be something like:
80,000 x 5 = 400,000 / 160 = 2500 acres === This is land for 125 yards only
Similarly if we look at the Bahria golf project, we heard there are about 7k to 10k files available. So make an estimate of 30 marla per plot and add normal golf course size which consume 150 acres. So in result you will see approximately 2000 acres for Bahria Golf project. Here we calculated only 2 categories of Bahria Town Karachi out of around 30. And we covered approximately 4000 acres of land for 2 categories. Now imagine what land left for the rest of 28 (approximately) projects. Hey! we didn't counted parks, hospitals, roads and schools area in this calculation. I left that for you.
What is expected from Bahria::h
One thing is 100% clear to me that Bahria is not a fraud.So to handle the situation Bahria may already adapted the same approach i.e. buy the extra files, destroy them and try to fix everything in available land of 7631 or bring it more close, so later may they get a chance to buy more lands. So now think over it that what rate Bahria will buy the files? 3 lac for 125 yards or 20k for 125 yards? Similarly 5 lac own for 500 yards golf or 12 lac minues? Hope you have the answer for your question.
What should we do now::h
Please note, when Bahria rate falls down or go high, it paints all categories with the same brush respectively, means all categories including opal/hoshang form will go down or go up, doesn't matter whatever is the real value. It can't be happend like added 5 lacs own in 250 files but Bahria heights gone down to minus 5. One will go up/down, rest will follow. But we don't need to follow this, we need to understand the real ground situation, Apartments, Villas and Quaid homes or under construction and face of Bahria Town, so Barhia will never let them down and will try to gain the peoples trust to build them and handed them over asap. So we need to buy these properties rather going in to above discussed hotch potch. We keep in mind that short term investment is not going to help in either category.
When prices will increase::h
Off course once Bahria started buying through his big fishes, rate will automatically boost up. Bahria won't stay with low rates longer, because BTK wants people to pay installments, if things are in minus Bahria will never push peoples for installment, neither people will ready to pay anything further, also Bahria will not in position to cancel the file because in that case they will have to refund the amount which is 40% more than the file holder can get from the market. So be patient and invest in the right projects.
Please note, I am a lay man and these are all my rough thoughts, these may all become wrong, so decision is yours, if works for you, order a pizza for me, if not then your fate
