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Friday, January 29, 2016 10:41 PM 

This post is in continuation to my previous post “Platinum Investment DHA” posted in June 2015. I did my investments there and recommended it. It doesn’t make sense that I invest in one place and recommend other places. You can search my post on Google or on this website Ref. 90354.

I highly recommended Phase 8 S; on my short trip in June 2015 the plot in Phase 8 S-650 to S-656 was around 110 lac and now it is around 145-150 lac profit of 35-40 lac in 6 months. Yes in 6 months only. I recommended Phase 7 Upper Cutting; the plot in Phase 7 U-465 to U-470 was around 100 lac and now it is around 115-120 lac profit of 15-20 lac in 6 months. I also recommended Phase 5 M the price at that time was around 110 lac now at 140 lac profit of 30 lac that too in 6 months. All of my three recommended investments made handsome profit. Yes, I was strong opponent of Phase 9 (Prism). Based on past history of DHA I believe it promises to you end up giving it to your generation. Based on location, popularity, master planning it will be the best phase in DHA BUT I will still invest in Prism after 5 years when I see things on ground no matter what the price will be.

To make it clear; I am not even 1% to respected Mr. JameelMughal, Mr. Ahmet, Mr. Habib and Mr. CMY. You all are my mentor and I learned a lot from you in short span of time. I am young, in property business for less than a year, doing Ph.D in electrical engineering abroad and studied “Real Estate Investment” from professors of one of the best business schools in world. But academic knowledge does not apply exactly in practice especially in Pakistan. Sometimes it doesn’t hurt to listen to sophomore. Sometimes beginners and new entrants set the market trend as if everyone is expert and knowledgeable then there are no undervalued areas and unpredictability disappears.

Phase 8: The top location plots in phase 8 are more than 2 crore. The possession is expected in 1 year so juice is still left. Those who are thinking to sell Phase 8 and buying 1.5/2 kanal in Phase 7 or 1.5/2 kanal in Phase 9. Please do not think so. You don’t know what you are holding. Phase 5 is the first phase who broke the “Psychological Barrier” of 3 crore. Phase 8 will be the first Phase to break the “Psychological Barrier” of 4 crore. Top most location of Phase 8, excellent development, expect very good surprises by DHA in empty land between T and S block in future. Those who have investment there it’s worth it to hold it. It is still a long a way to reach maturity phase. Phase 8 is true love.

Phase 6: Those who are holding Phase 6 please help yourselves and your neighbors’ i.e. Phase 7. You can sell your plot at some premium and can buy 1.5 to 2 kanal (by adding some money) in Phase 7. High chances are that you will earn more profit by doing this.

Phase 7: The stigma of location (pocket, village, Indian border) is there and will haunt Phase 7 for a long time. At the same time it is the only low value investment in developed plots. There is another nail in the coffin i.e. hype created by the builders and developers as rightly said by Mr. JameelMughal and Mr. Habib. I believe, it will gradually start from blocks adjacent to Phase 6 like R, S and W block which may trigger the prices and this trend will be followed to other blocks. Those who are holding Phase 7 for last 1.5 year there is just an increase of 1-2 million and at the same time Prism gained significantly that too with less investment. So, it’s really frustrating and every time you hear is a wait for 6 more months. So, if you fed up, holding a good location plot you can sell it, add some money and buy in Phase 8 Or buy in other undervalued areas may not be in Lahore may be in Rawalpindi/Islamabad. Diversity! Don’t sell Phase 7 plot in order to buy in phase 9 at least not now. I see 10-15% steady rise for at least 2 years.

Phase 9: Don’t compare Prism with Phase 7. The comparison of Prism should be done with Phase 8 or Phase 5. Top location, Best Master Planning, Ring Road, Theme Park, Largest Phase, Huge Commercial! Where? – On Papers! But it has the promise and potential to be the best phase of DHA. The area is huge, task is complex so wait. After few years situation will be clear! Yes, Prism has gained significantly as compared to all others that too with less investment. I wish it will continue to rise at same pace till maturity. Those who have investments there All the best!! I don’t want to get into a technical debate of global financial crisis, economic downturn, elections; end of IMF program, the borrowed money has to be returned as well, debt-to-revenue ratio should be capped at 350%, beyond which it wouldn’t be sustainable. Currently, in Pakistan this ratio stands at an alarming 523%. By 2018-19, the debt-to-revenue ratio will be over 750%. Investors assuming that next 10 years will be very smooth! Insha’Allah it will be. I salute to all Prism investors for being so optimistic. Anyways, long term holders in Prism will never loose. Prism is future and future is bright! There are some people in this world who wants to play in present and near future!

Phase 5 M: Hold it! Wait for possession and build your dream house.

New investors! I lived in Islamabad for 3.5 years during ; I have seen the prices of D-12, E-11 14 Marla rose from 1 crore to 3 crore. House prices in F-7, F-8 in tens of crore. Rents are so high. Apartments are crore +. Bahria Enclave 1, Islamabad is very good location. I know this place. 15-20 mins drive from Serena Hotel. The good location 10 Marla plot in Sector A, developed, possession available is around 80 lac. I believe it is one of the best investments one can do. In Islamabad such location, facilities and price is worth it. Ideal for living as well as for investment. As Mr. CMY said, invest in on-ground plots in Bahria instead of files. So, 10 Marla possession plot in Bahria Enclave 1 Sector A is highly recommended. It’s a must visit. If I have the money I definitely buy one plot here. It has the potential to double within 3 years.

Second good investment is in Naval Anchorage, Islamabad. It is bit off the road the price of 1 kanal is around 80-90 lac. It is a secured gated community maintained by Pakistan Navy. I haven’t visited the place recently but it is recommended to me by my close friends and relatives. So, if you have time and energy to visit the place and observe on ground realities do so and please let us all know.

Summary

Phase 8 (Hold it! It will be first phase to break the “Psychological Barrier” of 4 crore)

Phase 6 (Sell it! Buy 1.5-2 kanal in Phase 7, help yourselves and your neighbors)

Phase 7 (Either Hold it! Wait for developer and builder hype OR Sell it! Add money and buy in Phase 8 OR other undervalued areas)

Phase 5 M (Hold it! Wait till possession)

Phase 9 (Potential Candidate of another “Psychological Barrier”, Worth it to hold Prism investments for long term)

For ISLAMABAD

Bahria Enclave 1 Sector A 10 Marla (Highly Recommended, Visit First Then Decide)

Naval Anchorage (Recommended, Visit First Then Decide)

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khan replied on Saturday, January 30, 2016 03:38 AM 

Good one! Cheers!

Tayyeb replied on Saturday, January 30, 2016 03:43 AM 

@Qasim. Thanks for taking time out to share your well structured thoughts and those too with clarity. Whether one agrees or not, a highly professional posting with ample food for thought. Look forward to see more valuable postings from your end. Keep it up.

Question replied on Saturday, January 30, 2016 05:18 AM 

Please can you explain why PHASE 7 10 marla plots in lower cutting near to BRB canal are available @ 70 to 80 lacs

Khan replied on Saturday, January 30, 2016 05:38 AM 

Good assessment but you overlooked DHA 9 Town. What is you stance on these plots

EJ replied on Saturday, January 30, 2016 05:47 AM 

test

opnion replied on Saturday, January 30, 2016 08:37 AM 

@ Qasim if you consider 1% of CMY then according to CMY phase 8 holder must switch to prism 9 immediately if phase 8 holders do not want to construct houses. so i will go with CMY

opnion replied on Saturday, January 30, 2016 08:38 AM 

consider yourself*

opnion replied on Saturday, January 30, 2016 08:44 AM 

DC rate of phase 9 one kanal is 20 lac so we can save advance tax as it is applicable on property worth more than 30 lac plus cvt stamp duty is also low in case of prism

Saleem replied on Saturday, January 30, 2016 10:30 AM 

CMY's recommendations were more logical & realistic. Phase-6 & 8 have already gained a lot. With further gains, finding any buyers would be a challenge. Farewell to these locations and re-investments in areas where prices have yet to gain, seems right choice.

Imran replied on Saturday, January 30, 2016 11:02 AM 

Interesting perspective. Its good that people provide differnt perspectives because most of the posts, people are only interested in their plot evaluation.

Abc replied on Saturday, January 30, 2016 11:04 AM 

@ Qassim
Please let us know how many villages pockets
Are in Phase 7 vs Phase 9
Similarly how many working factories in phase 9
I

Azi replied on Saturday, January 30, 2016 10:44 PM 

Dear Mr. Qasim....thanks for useful analysis...however it is omitting mention of small investors like me...you are talking of 'crores' only....what should a poor man holding 1.5-2 million do?...we are then left with no option but to invest in prism...

Jameel Mughal® replied on Saturday, January 30, 2016 10:44 PM 

I think it is Good Fact based analysis, No two investments match each other and have positives and negatives. We can only make informed guess and can make comparisons based on ground realities and comparisons, People who disagree should come up with logic and critical analysis. This is the only way we learn from each other.

Habib replied on Saturday, January 30, 2016 10:44 PM 

Nice article and Good Opinion a bit of difference

In my opinion it is not near future Kanal will reach 4 Cror in Nice ready places it will be 2 Cror even phase 5 may revert Back to 2.25 averge

For New Investor I will say Diversify in phase 7 upper cutting and 9 [Only underpriced areas], DHA Town and Phase 8 S Block. About 7 I am telling becuase in 3,4 ys time there will be no place to make home excpet phase 7, Then phase 8 will come, Phase 8 construction activity will be very very slow, Only builders kick start home making, They will never make home in 2 basement deep Land in Phase 8. Their budget for Construction is only 90 Lac. Level Plot Notebaly S will be populated earliest and that is why it is gaining before it was rated 3rd class as it was bit isolated, Phase 8 Constuction in hot Blocks will be slow Like L Block of phase 5, [Depth was issue there as well] It does not mean price will drop but will be stagnat and in areas of Construction activity it will grow.
Prism Low Priced Blocks have Lot of room to grow and I tell you 5 Merla is way underpriced than Kanal due to small investor who dont want to pay development charges there is massive supply. Other wise 2, 5 Merla plot price is equal to Kanal in all phases of DHA no matter 5,6 or 7. Never in history DHA Gave such nice Locations to 5 Merla as in phase 9, dont ignore that.

Asad replied on Saturday, January 30, 2016 10:44 PM 

Haha. What a pretentious post. What has debt to revenue got to do with prism? DHA is not even a government owned society so what is the writer babbling about? Secondly, PLEASE try to differentiate between an investor and a trader. It's pretty obvious that prism is a fantastic opportunity for investors while ph 7 will be the playing ground for traders in 2016. That sums it up. No need for obscenely long meaningless essays

wise replied on Saturday, January 30, 2016 10:56 PM 

LIVING IN A Nuclear AGE and talking about Indian border ,ridiculous rather more than ridiculous.Phase 7 is best and will prove because it is completely developed. Phase 8 is full of noise pollution,prism is to be developed it takes time and it is long very long journey. Do not misguide innocent peoples.

Ahmet replied on Saturday, January 30, 2016 10:57 PM 

Thanks Qasim, a good post though I disagree with a lot of things here - especially asking phase 6 investors switching to phase 7 when investments like phase 8, DHA Town, Prism, Ivy Green are available. Also the relevance of IMF program to Prism? Pakistan has always been on an IMF program :) Also on ratios, to be honest ratio analysis are good only when deriving the market value of a company but a quick ratio analysis of a country without understanding the dynamic of its economy and debt structure isn't of any use. Pakistan's debt has increased significantly during Nawaz's era but its just $70b which is peanuts for a large country like Pakistan. I wouldn't worry too much about a $70b debt when there are countries with AA+ credit rating with debts of 10s of trillions. Also do not forget the CPEC! ;)

AMS replied on Saturday, January 30, 2016 10:57 PM 

Thanks for your indepthe analysis and recommendations. What is the potential of followining locations in Isalamabad and Lahore:

- DHA Phase 2
- G14, G15,G16,F15
- Baharia Enclave 1
- Park Enclave

Lahore:
- Phase 8, Ivy Green
- Broadway commercial
Regards,
Mumtaz

Dawood replied on Saturday, January 30, 2016 10:57 PM 

Detailed analysis, however slightly biased on growth potential of phase-8 (especially its S-Block) in comparison with phase-7. If phase-7 is close to Indian border, how far are phase-6 and Phase-8. As regards high prices in any phase, it is meaningless if it attracts very selective category of rare buyers or has no buyer at all, and in such situations the investments get blocked.

Danial replied on Saturday, January 30, 2016 10:57 PM 

Whether one agrees or not, excellent analysis and views. Keep it up and frequent contributions on the forum will be helpful.

Khawaja Qasim® replied on Sunday, January 31, 2016 03:11 PM 

@wise @Dawood; I am strong proponent of Phase 7. I believe in this area and I know the potential of this place. I mentioned those who are fed up of Phase 7 can diversify! I recommended Phase 6 plot holders to invest in Phase 7. I have one plot in Phase 7 and I am keeping it. Worst case! If it didn’t appreciate well, I will build a house there and will play in DHA or Bahria or other undervalued areas with my expansive plots. My stake is small and I have an exit plan. There are people here who have high stake and Phase 7 didn’t performed that well in for last one and a half year. I agree 100% Phase 7 holders are right but at the same time you can’t deny the perception or stigma and Indian Border thing is rubbish! But instead of being stubborn and keep doing your loss, don’t you think it’s time to reevaluate, diversify your investments as Mr. Habib said. Think about Bahria Enclave 1, Naval Anchorage Islamabad, Phase 8 and DHA Phase 9 Town and IVY Green as Mr. Ahmet said. Don’t panic, don’t rush but do think be flexible!
@Dawood; No, I ranked Phase 8 S on top of my Platinum Investment and it proved right gain of 35-40 lac in 6 months! In this post I am proponent of Phase 8 in general not one particular block
@AMS, I am sorry, I only know few areas whom I talked about. I don’t have information about the areas you asked
@Ahmet; Thank you very much for your comments! I take your words very seriously and I will discuss each point in detail with Economics professor. The economic factors were written in good faith and I didn’t talked anything negative. I left the open question to audience to find out whether economic factors of Pakistan will affect the property market (esp. developing Phases) in general or not? My apologies I wrote them in the Prism section am in process of gathering information and data regarding DHA Phase 9 Town and IVY Green. The only safe place I know was Phase 7. May be (if possible) you can spare some time and write a post about DHA Phase 9 Town and IVY Green and talk about the future prospects. Lot of people wants to know about these two areas in general. May be your fresh post will help.
@JameelMughal; Thank you for your comments!
@Habib; Thank you for your comments! You talked about diversification of investment! Time for investors to think about!
@Azi; you touched a very sensitive subject and is close to my heart; In fact I was planning to write a detailed post on “Beginner’s guide to Real Estate Investment”. But your direction is right; you have to start with small investments first. The time to enter and exit the market is very critical. Investment at right time and at right place. Beginners due to small stake can take high risk as compared to mature investors. It reminded me of my time; I started with zero but later assisted by parents, I did 3 part-time jobs (teaching, tuitions and security guard) simultaneously that too during my MS studies at UK. I invested in 5 Marla plot in Bahria at 9.5 lac after 2 years it was above 3 million. I am a beginner (less than 1 year in Lahore market) and need to do lot of research but it will be better if respected Mr. Habib, Mr. JameelMughal and Mr. Ahmet write a detailed post, share their experiences and help small investor in building their assets.

Zeeshan replied on Wednesday, February 10, 2016 11:36 PM 

DHA Town and IVY will be going best investment in near future. And Prism will be also good but some blocks will take hype soon like 05 marlas R & J and Prism will take at least 6 years to come in possession and may come out from our dreams.
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