A Short Term Seasonal Investment Strategy
Although real estate should generally be considered as long term investment, here is a simple, passive, and great short term investment strategy based on seasonal price variations and Supply/Demand trends for Pakistan real estate:
1. Buy in July/August
2. Hold for Six Months
3. Sell in January/February
4. Wait and do your home work/research for next five to six months
5. Go to Step 1
This short term strategy has almost always worked.
REASON: Summer in Pakistan is essentially depressing time for everything. Demand for property rises in Winter/Holidays/Eids/Festivities season. Follow the natural seasonal cycle along with good research for best returns on your investment.
RIDE THE TIDE.
"There is a tide in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat; And WE MUST TAKE THE CURRENT WHEN IT SERVES, Or lose the ventures before us."
(William Shakespeare.JC)
Regards,
Investor
Question replied on Friday, July 18, 2008 02:05 PM PST
Dear Investor,
Is it a cheering up / buck up message to keep market alive in situation like nowadays? Or you have really experienced it by yourself? Please explain further with facts from past (if you like).
Thank you. |
Investor replied on Friday, July 18, 2008 02:37 PM PST
For reference, this forum has historical prices for July/August (add some skew/margin error/Islmaic calendar adjustment), and January/February for previous three to four years. Prices tend to peak in first quarter of the year, and tend to bottom in third quarter. Moreover, your RESEARCH and HOMEWORK are the keywords here. This is not blind investment strategy.
Seasonal edge is about TIMING only. There is NO FREE LUNCH. It's not a one dimensional world. The Quality of your investment is more important than timing.
The Quality of your investment depends on your research and detailed know-how of what you are investing in. Don't expect guaranteed result if you choose to make a bad investment. Your timing can't save you much if the quality of investment is bad.
There are hundreds of choices. You have to do the grading based on parameters you prefer most and consider of most value. If you do your research from Feb to June (~ five months), you can narrow down some fundamentally sound investments which are well below their worth. Buy during July/August period for best timing of the year to enter in good investments (for short-term perspective). (BTW, this does not mean a good investment cannot be made at other times. If you have a keen eye to spot good long term investments with good micro-timing any time can be good time for you.)
Regards,
Investor |
Rana replied on Friday, July 18, 2008 03:06 PM PST
Dear investor, what is the best area of investment in your opinion? |
Question replied on Friday, July 18, 2008 03:13 PM PST
Dear Investor,
Thank you. |